[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 54W/55W S OF
20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 51W-57W. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 14N SW TO NEAR 10N37W. THE MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THIS WAVE AND THE 1009 MB LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN MAKING THE LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE SIGNATURE DIFFICULT TO
TRACK. THE MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N. NO DEEP
CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GUATEMALA
AND WRN HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 14N29W 10N36W 9N40W 13N53W
12N56W ACROSS THE NRN VENEZUELA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE AXIS NEAR 12N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 13W-22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE
FROM 7N37W TO 10N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST ANCHORED
OVER NRN MEXICO AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS ALONG WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF E OF 91W
IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA AND TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
PRODUCING RETURN FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE/STRONG S TO SW
WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF AND MODERATE W WINDS OVER THE E GULF.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS THE
GULF N OF 23N... OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH NE UPPER FLOW. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED
OVER NRN COLOMBIA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA
AND W OF 65W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF ERN HISPANIOLA WHICH EXTENDS
TROUGHING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N66W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W NEAR 14N81W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
77W-84W. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. OTHERWISE THIN HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS EWD OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 70W WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH
32N65W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 29N61W WITH AN UPPER LOW N OF ERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N69W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 32N62W SW TO 27N72W. A SERIES OF BENIGN UPPER
LOWS IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH
THE FIRST INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N12W TO A SECOND
NEAR 29N32W TO A THIRD NEAR 30N51W. THESE UPPER LOWS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR...THUS FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF
THE REGION NEAR 36N39W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLAND AND CUBA.

$$
HUFFMAN




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