[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 49W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A 1009 MB BROAD LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
SIGNS OF BANDING...INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W/24W S
OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
25W-29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN IS SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SPLIT
IN TWO PIECES. ONE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA WHILE THE SECOND IS MOVING NWD OVER THE W ATLC. A
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO FOLLOWS THIS WAVE AS SEEN ON
SAT IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
70W-72W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S OF CUBA NEAR 22N TO PANAMA ALONG
81W MOVING W 15-20 KT. A LARGE AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
8N-17N BETWEEN 75W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 13N23W 10N35W 13N44W 6N57W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N29W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N86W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
S LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 89W-92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-81W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR
31N100W PRODUCING NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 26N. EXPECT WEAK FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE NE GULF STATES N OF 28N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE NRN COLOMBIAN COAST.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 74W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
INLAND OVER GUATEMALA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 88W-91W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR
22N80W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N74W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN
70W-90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. FURTHER W...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N51W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
64W-67W...AND FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 61W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N27W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N23W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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