[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W/46W
OR ABOUT 780 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF CONCENTRATED AND DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 42W-49W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF
A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ON THE NORTHERN END AND THE ABC ISLANDS ON THE
SOUTHERN END. A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA WHICH EXTENDS TROUGHING S-SW TO THE NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS HAITI
AND ERN CUBA AND MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGHING THAN
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 12N17W 11N23W 12N42W 9N47W
7N59W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 22W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS
EXTENDS RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 22N. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION ALONG 20N TO
THE MEXICO COASTLINE NEAR 20N97W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN
CONTINUES NW TO SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ERN GULF FROM 25N-27N E OF 88W TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A
1017 MB HIGH OVER WRN CUBA INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING THE WRN
AND CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER CUBA DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA AND WRN
HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING EWD OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 12N76W WHICH COVERS
MUCH OF THE SRN CARIBBEAN BASIN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
74W-83W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 73W. MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NRN COLOMBIAN COAST. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN...SEE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN U.S. INTO THE FAR
W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING
THE AREA NEAR 31N70W EXTENDING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE SE CENTERED NEAR
29N66W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER ERN CUBA IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 53W-69W. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N51W WITH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 24N35W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 23N21W EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ. OTHERWISE...THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA IS DOMINATED BY A
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A
RIDGE TO THE BAHAMAS AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

$$
HUFFMAN


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