[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W S OF 19N IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0840Z
CONFIRMS POSITION OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION FORMING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
42W-45W. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 17N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE DEFINED AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THE
WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. INVERTED-V CLOUD SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 12N32W 11N39W 9N43W 6N58W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE
W AFRICAN COAST AND IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-21W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
21W-24W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 27W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS EXTENDS RIDGING
OVER THE NWRN GULF WATERS N OF 22N AND W OF 83W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF. AS OF 10/0900Z...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 28N85W.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND DRIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND 88W...BUT STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ARE SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE E CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
21N99W AND REMAINS A RATHER BENIGN UPPER FEATURE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 23N83W. SURFACE CIRCULATION AROUND
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER ERN CUBA AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
EAST OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 72W-80W. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS ARE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH ARE PROVIDING AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS AIDING IN
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
PANAMA...NRN COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 10N.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NRN COLOMBIAN COAST. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 60W/61W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN U.S. INTO THE FAR
W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING
THE AREA NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE SE CENTERED NEAR
27N69W AND COUPLED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN
63W-73W. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 30N61W AND IS
GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 56W-59W. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N47W WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE ERN ATLC NEAR 28N26W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N35W. IN BETWEEN...A PAIR OF
UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS. THE MAIN ONE IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 19N51W
AND THE OTHER OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N22W.
OTHERWISE...THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE
HIGHS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED SE OF THE AZORES AND ANOTHER
1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N46W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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