[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. IT IS MARKED QUITE EASILY IN THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING ON TOP OF HAITI AT THE
NORTHERN END AND MOVING FROM VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA AT THE
SOUTHERN END. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A 23N100W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN INTERIOR MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE BETWEEN 24N97W 21N95W 19N94W AND THE MEXICO COAST.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 11N20W 13N28W 9N45W 10N61W. CLOUDS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN
18W AND 24W ARE SWIRLING AROUND WHAT PROBABLY WILL BE THE NEXT
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE FOR THE FUTURE. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N28W 8N42W 9N56W 10N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE AREA OF DALLAS TEXAS TO MEXICO AND TEXAS BETWEEN 100W
AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND INTO MEXICO NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF EDOUARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE/NEIGHBORING ALABAMA/SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE
COASTAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N
TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF 27N/28N EAST OF 85W...MOVING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE BAHAMAS
TOWARD FLORIDA AND SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN CUBA. THIS MOVEMENT IS
DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM 22N73W TO WESTERN JAMAICA AND ONWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N73W
BETWEEN MAYAGUANA AND LITTLE INAGUA IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
JUST WEST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
COASTS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE JUST
NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE
LINED UP WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N JUST WEST OF THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOWARD HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND POSSIBLY UNDER A NEARBY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE-
TROUGH...STARTING WITH THE 22N73W NEAR-BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER
AND ENDING NEAR 30W. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR
27N43W TO 24N52W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N54W TO 14N56W.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO 27N. THE THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 23N35W
18N38W 13N39W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THESE THE TROUGHS THAT ARE BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

$$

MT



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