[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT
20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
...AND THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A BULGE OF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 5N-23N BETWEEN
34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS
BROKEN. THE N PART IS MOVING NWD OVER THE W ATLC AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 21N
MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS S OF HISPANIOLA
TO NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 67W-73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 94W S OF 21W MOVING WEST
AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER S MEXICO FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N20W 13N30W 9N45W 11N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
A LARGE CLUSTER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
57W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD IS WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 97.7W...OR 30 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF WACO TEXAS MOVING TO NW AT 13 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1011 MB. EDOUARD IS STILL PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER INLAND E TEXAS. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 81W-85W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NE TEXAS DUE TO EDOUARD. A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
21N95W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1008
MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N53W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N69W TO 23N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 71W-73W. A 1019 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N53W. YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N34W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 27N E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
37W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA








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