[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE LAST ADVISORY OF T.S. EDOUARD WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 05/2100 UTC WHEN IT WAS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT THAT TIME...EDOUARD WAS CENTERED NEAR
30.2N 95.2W OR ABOUT 30 NM...60 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
HOUSTON TEXAS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG ITS PATH. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF EDOUARD OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 20N BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED V-SIGNATURE AND
THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A BULGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED
ALONG 31W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY
ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS
BROKEN. THE N PART IS MOVING NWD OVER THE W ATLC WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAVE IS ADJUSTED ALONG 65W BASED ON SFC
OBSERVATIONS...DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES. THE AXIS
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NE VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
AFFECTING MAINLY THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE WAVE WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA
ALONG 90W S OF 23W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR MERIDA
YUCATAN AND OVER N GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N29W 10N35W 10N46W 10N62W.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE AREA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 34W-37W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR
8N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
EDOUARD MADE LANDFALL AT 05/1200 UTC IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND
SABINE PASS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AT 05/2100 UTC
WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION INLAND OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OVER THE NE PORTION OF GULF ALONG 84W FROM 24N TO 29N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AS
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN TONIGHT WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH THU. ALOFT...AN INVERTED THROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
TO THE E OF EDOUARD...OVER LOUISIANA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER NELY WINDS BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR THE SE
BAHAMAS AN THE UPPER HIGH OVER LOUISIANA ARE HELPING TO INDUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA
AND WESTERN CUBA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO N COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N52W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. A SFC TROUGH...WHICH WAS PART OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM 28N65W
TO 22N68W. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING NEAR THE N END OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS IS NEAR THE S END OF THE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEEN
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALSO CROSSES THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST...A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N41W. PATCHES OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N ROTATING
AROUND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. THIS UPPER
FEATURE EXTENDS A RIDGE TO NEAR 20N62W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 19N52W PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N
OF THE ITCZ AND S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N40W SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
GR






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