[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 92.8W AT 05/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
AND ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EDOUARD IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
ABOUT THE SAME. A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED THE CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 91W-93W.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. OUTER BANDS OF EDOUARD ARE
ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WITH RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N28W. CYCLONIC
TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N WHERE THERE IS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W. THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT
AND 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY SUPPORT THE POSITION OF
THE WAVE. A QSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN. ITS
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 63W S OF 26N MOVING W 20-25 KT. A WEAK 1014
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 62W-66W. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. WHILE THE N
PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BREAK AWAY AND MOVE NWD...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN SPREADING ITS MOISTURE OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE PAIRED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY FROM 8N-20N WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N30W 12N44W 10N50W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 29W-34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-57W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 90W-94W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NW OF EDOUARD OVER E TEXAS
NEAR 30N95W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N TEXAS NEAR
34N100W MOVING SW. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT... EDOUARD TO
MOVE W AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SE TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1007
MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER W CUBA N OF 20N W OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W.
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 21N71W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS
OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
21N71W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N22W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS N OF 27N E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W TO BREAK AWAY
AND MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION AS A SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE TO CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
FORMOSA




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