[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 050259
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

EDOUARD HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.  HOWEVER...
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE
CENTER...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER AT LAKE CHARLES IS SHOWING WINDS
OF 60-65 KT AT 10000 FT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OCCURRED BETWEEN 18Z-00Z...AND SINCE
THAT ENDED THERE HAS BEEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 290/6.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  EDOUARD SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LANDFALL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER
TEXAS...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHEAR...
POSSIBLE DRY AIR...AND RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ARGUE AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE
LANDFALL.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LANDFALL AS A 55-60 KT TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE STORM COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE
IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...EDOUARD SHOULD
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 28.7N  92.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  93.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  95.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  97.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N  99.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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