[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T
CHANGED MUCH.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.  STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  EDOUARD'S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 28.3N  91.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 28.6N  92.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 29.4N  95.0W    60 KT...JUST INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  97.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  99.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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