[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 04/1800 UTC IS IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28.3N 91.0 OR ABOUT
145 MILES/230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND
ABOUT 240 MILES/390 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING WEST 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF EDOUARD WILL
BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND EDOUARD MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES/75 KM FROM THE CENTER. A STORM SURGE
OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME
LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W
AND 91W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 27N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 20N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A SMALL
AREA WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 22N61W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING BLOWN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
OF AN ALREADY-ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 10N30W 12N40W 10N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N19W 13N21W 10N26W 8N30W 4N38W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N94W TO 24N96W
TO 23N96W IN THE MIDST OF A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. THIS TROUGH IS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
29N88W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND
31N78W. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS AND POSSIBLY
THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.
OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF HONDURAS
WEST OF 80W IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EAST OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 11N TO 13N UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED
OVER THE WATERS WEST 80W IN UPPER AIR DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
16N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM 17N71W TO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W...AND EVEN BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W TO A LESSER DEGREE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N26W AND 24N28W. NO DISCERNIBLE PRECIPITATION IS
NEARBY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N58W TO
A 30N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N66W TO 20N69W...
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N71W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPRINKLED THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 55W.

$$

MT




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