[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED
45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX.  IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST
12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 28.2N  90.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 28.4N  92.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  94.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.7N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



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