[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041234
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 90.3W AT
04/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 80 MILES/135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 285 MILES/460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES EDOUARD IS UNDERGOING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 88W-91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS FOUND NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N23W.
LOCATION IS BASED ON SURFACE AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE LATEST
GFS MODEL RUN FORECASTS MOVEMENT TO THE SW AT 20 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 27N MOVING W 20-25 KT.  A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
54W-59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS E OF
TRINIDAD FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 21N
MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS MASKING THE LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE MAKING ITS
LOCATION DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 80W-82W. FURTHER S...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N23W 10N34W 12N40W 10N50W
10N57W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 20W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
80W-82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NW OF EDOUARD
OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
OKLAHOMA NEAR 35N97W MOVING SW. EXPECT... EDOUARD TO MOVE W AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 74W-77W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
15N E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N86W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS
N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 56W TO BREAK AWAY AND MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WAVE MOVE W INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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