[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 040840
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE
DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB.  IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  RECENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB.  I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT
WILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
AREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES...EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE.
THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 270/8.  NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER.
AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0900Z 28.1N  90.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 29.0N  93.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 29.7N  95.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 30.4N  98.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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