[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 88.2W AT
04/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES EDOUARD IS UNDERGOING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM THIS EVENING AND CONFIRMED THE
STORM'S INTENSITY. AS THE STORM TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD IT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND COME UNDER MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 87W-89W. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 15N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 24N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SMALL AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-23N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 75W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-79W.
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 87W HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W SLIGHTLY
TO ALONG 93W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS IS BASED UPON AN
IMPROVED BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CURVATURE MAINLY IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION...REFER TO E PACIFIC TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS...
WITH SIGNATURE EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN
MEXICO AND NRN GUATEMALA BUT IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N23W 10N34W 11N38W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST E OF 16W. A SIMILAR AREA OF CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING IS TROPICAL
STORM EDOUARD IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SKIRTS THE FAR NE GULF WATERS AND
COVERS THE SERN CONUS FROM ERN LOUISIANA TO ACROSS NRN FLORIDA.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 85W AND IS ANCHORED
OVER WEST TEXAS. TWO RIDGE AXIS EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS...ONE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO OVER TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AND ANOTHER
FROM NERN MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. EDOUARD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 86W-92W. AN UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 83W ACROSS SRN FLORIDA
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER RATHER TRANQUIL SKIES WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING W OF 93W IN THE WRN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N85W. THIS COVERS
THE AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 79W INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA AND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OBSERVED N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-83W INCLUDING MUCH OF CUBA AND
WRN HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE
ITCZ ACROSS THE SAME AREA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 78W. AN UPPER HIGH IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING RIDGING INTO THE SERN
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN VENEZUELA
COAST AND OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W
OF 78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CUBA AND THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 29N W OF 76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-70W AND OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 21N66W. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN
ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N58W WITH A SECOND UPPER
LOW IN THE ERN ATLC NEAR 32N27W...BOTH ARE RATHER BENIGN
FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE... A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N32W TO 30N45W THEN W TO THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W AND
NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN




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