[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 16N
TO 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 18N
TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DISTINCT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 19N83W. MOST AND PROBABLY
ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT
TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 7N22W 11N35W 9N47W 9N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
37W AND 45W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W...AND FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO 26N93W TOWARD THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 28N87W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO
28N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE LINGERING FROM 25N TO
28N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N106W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 30N. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
19N83W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING CUBA BETWEEN 77W
AND 90W. THIS MEANS THAT THE LAND FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE WATERS WEST OF JAMAICA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE ACTUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 19N83W ABOUT 125 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA NEAR THE ITCZ AND WITH THE HELP OF
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTH TO EAST OF
JAMAICA IN THE WATERS AND PROBABLY/POSSIBLY REACHING THE
COASTLINE. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 75W. EARLIER
SHOWERS WERE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED AND/OR
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N64W TO THE
NORTHERN MONA PASSAGE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA TOWARD DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N27W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CENTER TO 28N30W AND 25N31W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N58W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CENTER TO 22N60W TO THE 21N64W AND
THE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST AND
NORTH OF THE 28N58W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH.

$$

MT



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