[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 24N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 42W-46W. HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

AT 02/2100 UTC A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
NEAR 26N89W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 85W-93W. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-33W. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL
ATLC UPPER RIDGE AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 69W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM DATA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
ALONG WITH THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS CONFIRMS POSITION OF
WAVE AS WEAK NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
PROGRESSED ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 69W-73W ACROSS MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE WRN ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 81W S OF 23N
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS A WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE
AND CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS IT MOVES BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF
12N AND LIKELY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N20W 8N28W 9N32W 11N42W
10N46W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 17W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM
NAPLES FLORIDA TO CANCUN MEXICO. IT IS ANCHORED OVER SRN TEXAS
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NRN FLORIDA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO AID IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 93W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
ANALYZED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N87W AND REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF WRN
CUBA COVERING THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NRN CUBA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF WRN/CENTRAL
CUBA. AT THE SURFACE...WRN ATLC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
ACROSS SRN FLORIDA WHILE A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE
WRN GULF NEAR 25N91W KEEPING THE GULF S OF 25N AND W OF 93W
CLEAR WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA EXTENDING SE OVER PANAMA AND NRN COLOMBIA. A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 21N81W EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE ENCOMPASSING JAMAICA AND
PORTIONS OF WRN HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA EXTENDING TO WITHIN 60 NM OF ADJACENT COASTLINES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WRN
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W DUE TO AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
PATTERN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE
ERN CARIBBEAN HELPING TO ENHANCE THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
69W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND NRN COLOMBIA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 12N FROM 75W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 27N W
OF 77W INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING THE ERN STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ATLC OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED N
OF THE REGION NEAR 33N61W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO
60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 78W-82W IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 25N55W GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 23N43W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH EAST OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N34W TO 27N58W THEN W TO OVER THE SRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
44W/45W AND NEAR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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