[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 23N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
40W-44W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN AN AREA
DEVOID OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N17W 11N27W 10N33W 11N42W
10N49W 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 40W TO
INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED OVER COAST OF
LOUISIANA EXTENDING E TO NE FLORIDA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
E OF 91W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN
COVERING THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE
GULF AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-25N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A RIDGE FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OVER THE N GULF LATE TODAY
INTO SUN THEN MOVE W ON MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA
EXTENDING NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY OF CAMPECHE INT
HE GULF OF MEXICO. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 20N80W
EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IN
THE W ATLC AND AS FAR S AS JAMAICA BETWEEN 76W THE E YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 17N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-71W WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA
RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 11N FROM 75W-82W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 27N W
OF 74W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA FROM 74W-78W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST N OF THE REGION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC TO 60W. A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N52W BUT REMAINS A RATHER BENIGN FEATURE. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N24W. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG
32N37W ALONG 26N54W THEN W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE ATLC FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
WALLACE


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