[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 23N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 75W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN AN AREA
DEVOID OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 10N25W 13N32W 8N52W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
24W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-13N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED OVER LOUISIANA
EXTENDING E TO NE FLORIDA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORMS N OF
27N E OF 90W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W
AND COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN 91W-96W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH A WEAKENING
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES S OVER THE N GULF LATE SAT INTO
SUN THEN MOVE W MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA
EXTENDING NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA
NEAR 21N80W EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC AND AS FAR S AS JAMAICA BETWEEN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN
HAITI AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-70W WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 11N FROM 78W-81W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W
OF 76W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 27N W
OF 73W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND MELBOURNE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED JUST N OF THE REGION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC TO 60W. A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 26N51W BUT REMAINS A RATHER BENIGN FEATURE. A BROAD
UPPER HIGH COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N23W. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS SW ALONG 32N37W ALONG 26N56W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC ALTHOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE GULF.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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