[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 32W-39W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 68W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ENTERED ALONG 8N13W 15N26W 9N40W 8N50W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 37W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. THE SRN GULF S OF 25N HAS MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES. TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 88W-91W...AND FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W. THE NET RESULT IS ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION IS FOUND OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND
ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N88W.
EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES
AT 37N25W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH TO 27N50W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N68W.  A TUTT OR STRING OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA
WITH LOW CENTERS AT 34N21W...32N36W...27N50W...AND 22N79W. IN
THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 18N51W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AT 18N24W. EXPECT... CONVECTION TO INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WAVE AS THE EMBEDDED LOW CENTER GOES OVER WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
FORMOSA






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