[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS VERY LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
20N. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N30W 7N45W 5N52W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 18W-24W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER A SMALL AREA FROM
24N-26N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS ALONG 91W/92W MOVING E.  RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 90W AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
NW GULF COAST TODAY AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO
THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS THE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ALONG 84W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN E TO
NE WIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-W
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST
OF 72W...INCLUDING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
JAMAICA TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 31N58W. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES ALONG
31N45W 25N55W 24N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A
1024 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF
THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 33W-43W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB OCCLUDED
LOW IS NEAR 32N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A LARGE ELONGATED
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N24W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS SE OF THE LOW
ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NE. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 45W.

$$
GR



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