[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS VERY
LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 20N.   SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N20W 7N40W 5N53W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 23W-25W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 24W-27W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS ALONG 31N84W
26N97W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER A SMALL AREA FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 87W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W
MOVING E.  RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.  EXPECT MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SE
GULF AND S FLORIDA TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXCEPT A COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVING SE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  IN
ADDITION ...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF
70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N65W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVIEST W OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER S CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W.  ANOTHER 1023 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N68W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 28N50W 25N60W 25N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1002 MB LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N24W.  THIS LOW IS COLD-CORE AT
THE MOMENT.  A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N18W AND
CONTINUES S ALONG 26N20W 19N30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 15W-18W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LONG RIDGE AXIS  EXTENDS N FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER JAMAICA TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 33W-43W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N24W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 12W-33W.

$$
FORMOSA




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