[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS PUSHING ITS WAY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NOW IS EAST OF
73W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH
OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THE 12Z POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTERPRETATION ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W ALONG
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE DID NOT APPEAR
TO BE OVER MAINLAND CENTRAL AMERICA BASED ON THE SURFACE ISOBARIC
ANALYSIS AT 31/1200 UTC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N88W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 8N20W 8N30W 8N40W 7N45W 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N4W 4N20W 7N33W TO 10N...AND
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS
FLORIDA...BEYOND 31N82W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND BEYOND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS THE NEXT ONE
TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA EAST
OF 73W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE
STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
17N78W SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 17N78W INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE
81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ACROSS FLORIDA AND BEYOND 31N82W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N71W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 69W NORTH OF 20N. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES UNTIL THE BASE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS NEAR 31N54W. THIS TROUGH GOES
FROM 31N54W BEYOND 37N50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 25N60W TO 25N70W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN THE 37N50W 31N54W TROUGH AND 30W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N27W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS 34N27W CENTER TO 27N25W TO 20N29W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N27W. A COLD FRONT COMES OUT OF THIS LOW CENTER...NORTH OF
31N...AND RE-APPEARS THROUGH 32N20W 24N23W 20N30W. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N24W 27N27W AND 27N36W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 11W AND 27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W.

$$
MT



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