[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 13N MOVING W
NEAR 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS N. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH AND VERY CLOSE
TO JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 87W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  A SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W.  THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
CENTRAL HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 9N30W 8N40W 4N50W 5N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N WEST OF
18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A VERY DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO MOVING EWD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL VISIBLE OVER
THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS IS PRODUCING ELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND STRONGER SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE GULF. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NW GULF COAST EARLY
WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN ELY SURFACE FLOW.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WEST OF 72W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA. AN INVERTED
TROUGH LIES ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 16N. PLENTY OF DRY/STABLE AIR
ALOFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. 15-20 TRADE WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE COLOMBIA COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC. STRONG SWLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED JUST E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND 31N60W. THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG 31N53W 26N60W 25N72W.
ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AND MAY AFFECT FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS
SHOWING A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N72W.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N26W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W. THIS LOW IS COLD-CORE AT THE MOMENT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO 31N22W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES S
ALONG 24N26W 20N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 17W-23W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW
IS NEAR 12N48W.  DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN
47W-62W.

$$
GR






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