[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
SLIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND
A WEAK CLOUD CLUSTER IS TRACKED IN HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 58W-62W TO INCLUDE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW
TO MID CLOUD FIELD...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THE MOMENT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
70W-75W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE
WAVE AXIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE EASIER TO LOCATE WITH SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD TURNING BECOMING APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
76W-84W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 8N35W 6N50W 8N60W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 10W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
18W-25W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 20N97W.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-92W.  FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY WLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH NO CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 16N87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W.  IN ADDITION
...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 66W-73W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... SWLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE W WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N65W
22N78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 71W-77W.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N45W.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 27N32W 24N40W 24N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES W TO 26N56W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N AND W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
E OF 45W.

$$
FORMOSA





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