[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE WITH LITTLE CURVATURE NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W MOVING W
20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 76W-79W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 9N46W 8N55W 9N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 18W-23W... FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-34W... AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 34W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 48W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AS OF 2100 UTC
AND EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BELIZE.  20 KT NLY
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE S OF 26N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
WLY FLOW.  EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH NO CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO BELIZE ALONG 24N80W 20N83W 16N88W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 86W-90W.  A PREFRONTAL ARC CLOUDS IS NOTED TO HAVE
REACHED THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SWLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  SELY FLOW DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N58W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N76W
24N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
73W-76W.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N
WITHIN 360 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N37W 25N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW
TO 22N60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ALONG 65/66W
COVERING MOST OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.  AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG
40W/41W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N40W. A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA





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