[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE WITH LITTLE CURVATURE NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ITS AXIS LIES ALONG 64W. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IS NOT CURRENTLY IDENTIFIABLE. THIS
WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 12-15N BETWEEN
62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEEN ENHANCING BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 8N42W 8N50W 10N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND
150NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 100NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-28W AND BETWEEN
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SSW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WESTERN GULF...
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AS OF
28/1500 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N78W THEN
CONTINUES SW ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
OCKEECHOBEE INTO THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/PENINSULA.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED  MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO SEEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTH MEXICO. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE
GULF. STRONG NW/N WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW
WITH A 1030 MB CENTER OVER NE MEXICO. THIS HIGH SHOULD DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE OF THE AREA AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TO S
BELIZE TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
SE GULF IS AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING
WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH COVERS
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO PUERTO RICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH LIES OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA. MUCH OF THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF
15N BETWEEN 67W-75W IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH DRY MID TO
UPPER AIR IN PLACE. 15-20 KT NLY WIND FLOW WILL INVADE THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ATLC. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDS
A RIDGE NWD ALONG 65/66W COVERING MOST OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. AN
UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 40W/41W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N40W. A
NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE ATLC FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 32N42W 24N53W 22N62W. A PRETTY WELL
DEFINED BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. A 1023MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 34N58W IS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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