[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271823
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ITCZ-RELATED
PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 8N26W 7N35W 6N40W 8N50W 10N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17W...FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
43W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CURRENT GULF WATERS COLD
FRONT. A STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM WEST TO EAST. IT IS
DRAGGING A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH
GOES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N86W TO 28N90W TO 26N94W
IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TO 23N97W JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST.
THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IS THE FRONT WHICH
WE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 17N81W. A COLD FRONT GOES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 22N60W TO 20N70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N70W TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
JAMAICA TO 19N80W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND INTO A PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER GOES FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF A DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE REACHES 70W
NORTH OF 28N. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A WESTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N58W TO
22N66W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W TO 22N60W TO 20N70W.
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 22N49W TO 25N37W BEYOND A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N28W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N42W 27N51W 22N60W 19N67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 39N23W 29N30W TO 22N34W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
15N36W JUST NORTH OF THE 38W TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT




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