[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
49W AND 56W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 19N
BETWEEN 59W AND 68W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RATHER THAN TO THE WAVE.

 ...THE ITCZ...
13N14W 7N30W 11N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN
30W AND 45W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 7N15W 5N20W 4N24W 3N30W.
6N10W 4N20W 9N43W 11N47W 14N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN
19W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS SOUTH OF 28N.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THE NEXT
DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ON
27/0600 UTC TO MOVE TO THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND DRAPE
ACROSS FLORIDA BY 29/0600 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 17N83W. A COLD FRONT GOES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 24N60W TO 20N70W TO 19N77W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM NORTHWESTERN
HAITI TO 19N80W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM EASTERN JAMAICA AND THE NEARBY WATERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W FROM NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA
TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 78W
AND SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N61W. A TROUGH
RUNS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 18N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 65W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH...THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N66W TO 21N70W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 24N60W
TO 20N70W TO 19N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N50W TO 25N56W. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N56W
22N63W 19N70W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS TO THE WEST OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES
FROM 23N55W TO 27N40W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N33W BEYOND 32N30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. CYCLONIC FLOW ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INTO CENTRAL MAURITANIA ON THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EAST OF 20W NORTH OF 18N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N34W. A BIG AND WELL-PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 23N34W TO 27N32W BEYOND 36N32W.

$$
MT




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