[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -76C AND
-80C WERE IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W AROUND
25/1300 UTC. THE CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA HAVE BECOME WARMER WITH
TIME. A SMALLER AND NEWER AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N49.5W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N56W 15N57W 13N58W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -73C TO -79C AT 25/1700 UTC FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A FEW SMALLER AREAS OF RAIN
ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND
54W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED IN
ORDER TO BE ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
SHOWERS ARE IN THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

 ...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 4N20W 9N43W 11N47W 14N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 5N13W 3N17W 4N22W
2N30W 3N34W 4N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE 6N10W 14N56W LINE OF
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 23W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE
OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN
93W AND 97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N75W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 18N88W...INLAND
JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 76W...AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WEST OF 14N83W 10N76W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ...AND
IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 12N TO 18N EAST
OF 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
EAST OF 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH...THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W
TO 27N60W TO 22N70W TO 21N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
21N75W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 20N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THROUGH 32N51W 27N57W 23N63W 21N69W 21N73W 21N76W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH
IS COLLIDING WITH SPAIN AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AT THIS TIME.
A WELL-DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE PASSES FROM 22N39W 28N40W
BEYOND 34N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 15N30W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N10W TO JUST EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N13W...TO 25N20W TO 24N26W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N36W...NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT AND THE 32N54W 23N67W WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net