[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 17N DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE
IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N21W 11N40W 12N60W ACROSS THE
S CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
44W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 42W 52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W EXTENDING N TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. RETURN SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N97W
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY THIN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E
CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER E/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 20N78W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N64W N INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE S OF 15N FROM 79W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE E US COAST COVERS THE W
ATLC N OF 22N W OF 59W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO OVER E/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER E CUBA. VERY DRY AIR IS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE W ATLC TO
80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NARROWING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 25N58W
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN A BROAD AND VERY DRY UPPER RIDGE COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N41W COVERING THE AREA FROM
25W-50W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 24N52W SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N60W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 52W-58W. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N28W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 21N E OF 25W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N12W ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 27N18W THEN DISSIPATING TO 25N25W. ANY ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE REGION. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 25W-55W WITH A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N38W.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net