[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 61W-65W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 8N20W 5N30W 6N40W 6N45W
6N55W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 9W-14W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
17W-20W... FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 22W-29W... AND FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN
35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N80W TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W.  A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN
88W-92W MOVING NE.  LIGHT SELY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE GULF S OF
THE FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N94W MOVING W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT N OF THE WARM
FRONT.  EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AND
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
CONVECTION.  SEE ABOVE.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF
PUERTO RICO TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N67W 16N74W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 18N79W 14N85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-86W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER JAMAICA AND S CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NELY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N AND W OF 82W DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN
70W-82W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N62W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 70W.  EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN PANAMA AND E CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N53W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 34N42W 26N45W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 27N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 26N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN
55W-70W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W MOVING
E.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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