[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...A SPECIAL FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ENDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH STARTS THROUGH 32N45W
TO 31N48W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N47W TO
25N54W TO 22N65W...TO 15N76W AND FINALLY TO A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST
THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH IS FILLED WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 24N66W TO 21N68W
TO A 1006 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N69W
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO 14N70W AND TO 11N73W IN THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT EARLIER WAS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 30W
AND 35W HAS WEAKENED AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS THIS MOMENT.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 8N20W 9N30W 12N38W 12N41W 11N45W 10N50W 10N53W 10N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY ARE
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
40W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A RIDGE RUNS FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N97W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 60 TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N84W 27N90W 24N98W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
THIS AREA OF DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST RECENT COLD
FRONT THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N84W TO 27N90W
TO 26N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N94W TO 25N95W
22N96W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD
OVER MEXICO TO 22N99W 25N100W AND 27N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS AREA HAS BEEN COVERED ALREADY IN THE
SECTION ABOUT THE SPECIAL FEATURE AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W...AROUND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT A COMPARATIVELY SMALLER MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N46W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 40W COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N EAST OF 40W...AND ALSO NORTH
OF 24N EAST OF 25W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 50W.


$$
MT




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