[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1007 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS SHOWS SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TURNING.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 49W-51W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N20W 12N37W 9N50W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 11W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO
ALONG 29N91W 25N96W 23N98W 27N101W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
97W-99W.  A 1012 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N84W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 15N67W 12N70W 12N73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
64W-67W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NW VENEZUELA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 75W AND N OF 11N.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA AT 18N71W.  CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
MOISTURE IS E OF 75W N OF 12N.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W.  ANOTHER
1011 MB LOW IS FURTHER S NEAR 25N54W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
BOTH LOWS ALONG 30N52W 25N54W 22N58W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 52W-59W.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N37W.  ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS
FURTHER E NEAR 26N25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N53W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E
OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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