[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH STARTS THROUGH 32N53W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N55W TO 23N67W TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W...TO 13N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM 30N49W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N53W...
TO 24N60W...TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N67W...TO
15N67W TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N71W...TO A 1007 MB NEAR 15N75W TO
13N78W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...AND FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SURROUND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN
47W AND 56W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NEARBY ADJOINING AREAS
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ONE SENSE...AND THE BASE OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 18N36W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS READILY APPARENT
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS THIS MOMENT. A CYCLONIC
SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT NEAR 12N45W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 7N22W 10N35W 10N39W 9N46W 9N49W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND INTO WEST TEXAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
DRY AIR COVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 92W IS STARTING TO
POKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF WATERS...THANKS TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST AND IN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS  BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EVERYWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO COVERS THE AREA TO
THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
COURTESY OF A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AROUND A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 32N62W 22N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS WEST OF THE 32N62W 22N70W LINE...AND WEST
OF THE ON-GOING DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE GOES FROM A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N18W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N36W TO 29N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM 30N34W TO 22N36W TO 18N36W.

$$
MT




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