[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS BEING
DISPLACED TO THE E BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE LOW/TROUGH
OVER PUERTO RICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N65W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
20N61W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N20W 13N33W 7N50W INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N61W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 24W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 11W-37W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE NE US AROUND THE LARGE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1002 MB LOW ALONG THE W COAST OF LOUISIANA SW TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. THE SQUALL LINE PRECEDES THE FRONT AND
IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 6 HOURS AGO EXTENDING FROM 28N94W TO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED NEAR 26N90W AND EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC AND
CARIBBEAN. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO 67W KEEPING THE AREA DRY. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 16N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO 67W KEEPING THE AREA DRY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W S
ALONG 24N62W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N53W EXTENDING S 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N62W
TO A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
27N56W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM
22N58W TO 33N49W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 16N56W N
TO BEYOND 32N47W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC THROUGH 32N22W SW TO NEAR 20N43W. AT THE SURFACE...A SMALL
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N FROM 30W-50W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 30N39W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC S OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 30W DISPLACING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W/36W.

$$
WALLACE



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