[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE E BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SHARP
LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF DRY AIR WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR WITH A FAINT
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N22W 12N31W 8N42W INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-17N BETWEEN 12W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 23N92W
EXTENDING E INTO THE W ATLC FORCING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N THAT
REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF. A PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CUBA NEAR 23N82W NW TO 26N85W WHERE THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW GULF PROVIDING HEAVY
RAIN AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N FROM
87W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY SHOWER
FREE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS DO COVER ALL BUT THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO 70W DRYING OUT THE AREA EXCEPT SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 71W FROM
14N-18N. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N FROM 63W-70W. A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS N OF
PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO 70W DRYING OUT THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W S  ALONG
24N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N58W
EXTENDING SW 25N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO CUBA NEAR
22N78W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS BETWEEN A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N63W TO A 1009 MB LOW N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
20N60W N TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 325 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 20N27N
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM
52W-61W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 32N20W SW ALONG 25N30W TO A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 21N42W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N13W EXTENDING TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N19W. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N22W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING N OF 24N21W. THIS IS DISPLACING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W.

$$
WALLACE



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