[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160500
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. HEAVIEST CONVECTION IS
BEING DISPLACED TO THE E BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 21W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. SHARP LOW
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DRY AIR WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR WITH A FAINT
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE NEAR 20N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 17N79W-20N85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N21W 8N39W 10N61W ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF AFRICA WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE COAST FROM 8N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N E OF 42W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 23N94W
EXTENDING E ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC FORCING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR
23N82W NNW ALONG 27N87W OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW GULF PROVIDING
HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N
W OF 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY SHOWER
FREE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS DO COVER THE GULF W OF 86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO 72W DRYING OUT THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 84W/85W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS
S INTO THE N OF 14N FROM 63W-72W. A 1008 MB LOW REMAINS N OF
PUERTO RICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 14N73W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W TO OVER THE LENSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO 72W DRYING OUT THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS BERMUDA S INTO THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT
RETURNS NW AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
27N64W TO A SECOND 1008 MB LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W
CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N61W N TO BEYOND 32N53W
PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 22N FROM 55W-63W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
58W-66W. NARROWING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 32N14W SW ALONG 23N34W TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
20N42W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N15W
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N25W. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE...NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. AN
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N22W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N OF 22N23W. THIS IS DISPLACING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W.

$$
WALLACE




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