[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ALONG 25W S OF 17N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE 11N21W-15N24W-15N29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 24N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW LEVEL
WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA
OF DRY AIR AND NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR WITH THE WAVE
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 10N22W 7N33W 10N51W 9N62W
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
24W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 28W-42W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-14N.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER NE US AND INTO THE W ATLC
ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W W
TO TO NE MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ALSO AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W EXTENDING E ALONG 19N/20N
GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF W OF 89W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 23N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING 1005 MB LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N97W.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COVERS THE ALL OF THE GULF THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF SHOWERS E OF 89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E
ALONG 19N/20N OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE
AREA. AN UPPER IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W COVERING A SMALL
AREA S OF 12N FROM 69W-76W. A 1008 MB LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM 64W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF
27N W OF 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG
19N/20N TO 55W DRYING OUT THE AREA. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 21N66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W N TO BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING
ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 20N63W TO BEYOND
32N59W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W SW ALONG 25N31W TO AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 21N43W ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 40W-45W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W EXTENDING SW TO 26N33W. DUE
TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT.

$$
WALLACE




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