[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W S OF
16N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 21W-26W.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 23N MOVING W
10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 37W-44W.  A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 74W-76W MAINLY DUE TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO TO
THE E PACIFIC.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO INLAND MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
95W-100W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 8N40W 10N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N86W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 24N98W.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
91W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  EXPECT BY SUNDAY
EVENING FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE N TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W.  EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21N67W.  THE LOW IS IN A VERY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WLY SHEAR.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E AND S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN
63W-67W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO.  ELSEWHERE... A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-79W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NELY
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N72W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N71W 24N80W.   A
1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO...SEE ABOVE.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N40W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 27N30W 26N40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF 20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N42W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA






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