[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DRY AIR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT OR ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM
91W-95W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N32W 12N50W 9N61W ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 9W-33W AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES COVERING
THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
GULF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES EXTENDING W TO NEAR 24N90W
WHERE IT CONTINUES NEAR STATIONARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO.
ALSO AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO CITY EXTENDING E ALONG 20N GIVING THE GULF
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GULF N OF 23N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-25N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF
22N W OF 95W. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF N OF 23N FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E ALONG 20N
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER
IS OVER THE GULF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W COVERING A SMALL AREA S
OF 15N FROM 65W-72W. THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N E OF 80W TO OVER
COLOMBIA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N
W OF 57W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N75W EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N FROM 58W-65W. THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC ALONG 20N TO 65W
DRYING OUT THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. VERY NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N58W S TO JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A 1007 MB LOW IS
N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 61W-66W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W N TO BEYOND 32N52W PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 54W-60W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 23N41W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N25W EXTENDING SW TO 27N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 29W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE





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