[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
1009 MB LOW HAS DISSIPATED. WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF DRY AIR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 35W-43W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
40W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT AND SO NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BUT
REMAINS WELL-DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS INLAND AS WELL.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N40W 8N61W ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 12N-15N E
OF 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 10W-45W AND FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US TO THE N GULF COAST. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA EXTENDING W ALONG 26N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W THEN NNW
TO OVER W TEXAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO CITY EXTENDING E ALONG 20N
GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 22N GIVING THE AREA FROM 22N-28N W
OF 88W SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 22N FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E ALONG 20N
TO 73W DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO AN
UPPER OFF THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA NEAR 13N70W. ALTHOUGH IS IS
PROVIDING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO THE AREA E OF 70W. THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM
COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL AMERICA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N
W OF 60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N76W EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N FROM 57W-65W. TROPICAL MOISTURE
CROSSES FLORIDA FROM THE GULF COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N-30N W
OF 75W...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT. THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC ALONG 20N TO 70W
DRYING OUT THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS. VERY NARROW UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N60W S TO ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N- BETWEEN
61W-66W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W N TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 52W-62W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR
16N34W AND 25N42W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SW TO 27N40W THE NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR
32N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 39W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
50W REMAINS RATHER SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE




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