[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N
DRIFTING WEST. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA WHICH NOW IS OCCUPIED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF 40W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W...AND FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS
ALONG THE WAVE FOR PARTS OF THE LAST 12 HOURS NOW IS NEAR 22N65W
WHILE THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TO THE WEST. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CLUSTERS FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W...AND
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE WEST OF 70W.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITH THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 17N TO
18N BETWEEN 102W AND 104W. ONE OTHER CLUSTER IS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ANOTHER ONE IS FROM 15N TO
16N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
SLOWLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND
IN NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS AREAS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
SYSTEM TO MAINLAND MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
10N13W 8N24W 9N33W 8N40W 7N52W 8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N
TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTH
TEXAS...TO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 90W...AND JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO EASTWARD
TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST
OF A LINE FROM 30N66W 15N70W 10N76W. CLOUDY SKIES AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DRY AIR. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PROBABLY IN THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE INTERIOR
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 65W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CROSSES FLORIDA...FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND REACHES 66W/67W FROM 27N TO 31N.
THIS FLOW THEN TURNS CYCLONIC...TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND IT HEADS
TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 16N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
24N60W TO 32N59W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE THEN HEADS TOWARD THE TROUGH WHICH IS JUST
WEST OF THE 36W/37W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W 27N70W 24N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 28N37W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N30W 30N35W
29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
AZORES TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT






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