[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 5 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA WHICH NOW IS OCCUPIED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF 40W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
34W AND 40W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS
ALONG THE WAVE FOR PARTS OF THE LAST 12 HOURS NOW IS NEAR 22N64W
WHILE THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TO THE WEST. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 17N63W 18N62W 19N62W 20N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE WEST OF 70W.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITH THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN CLUSTERS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 17N TO INLAND
MEXICO NEAR 22N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD SLOWLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST AND IN NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS AREAS DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINLAND MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 7N27W 9N35W 9N39W 8N50W 10N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN 30N97W...A LITTLE BIT EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AUSTIN TEXAS. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FAR WEST TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
THE GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS. THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N93W IN THE GULF WATERS...AND WITHIN
15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N98W 29N96W 29N95W IN TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO EASTWARD
TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST
OF A LINE FROM 30N66W 15N70W 10N76W. CLOUDY SKIES AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DRY AIR. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PROBABLY IN THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE INTERIOR
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 65W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CROSSES FLORIDA...FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND REACHES 66W/67W FROM 27N TO 31N.
THIS FLOW THEN TURNS CYCLONIC...TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND IT HEADS
TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 16N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
24N60W TO 32N59W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE THEN HEADS TOWARD THE TROUGH WHICH IS JUST
WEST OF THE 36W/37W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W 27N70W 24N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 28N37W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N30W 30N35W
29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE
AZORES TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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