[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED THIS MORNING ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF NEVIS AND ST.
KITTS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ST.LUCIA
NEAR 14N TO GUADELOUPE BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...AND
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN  60W AND 63W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD
SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITH THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN A CLUSTER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A CLUSTER IN MEXICO
BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 6N23W 8N33W 8N38W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND
18W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD AND OFF THE
CORNER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW IS NORTH OF 29N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERIOR
MEXICO-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO EASTERN CUBA RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE EASTERN END OF CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ONLY THE NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOES FROM PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE INTERIOR
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE U.S.A. NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 70W.
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...
AND IT LEADS TO THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
32N63W 24N67W TO 17N69W SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 16N60W TO 27N60W BEYOND 32N56W.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 22N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TO 32N204W TO
28N30W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N41W TO 27N57W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE ABOUT 300 NM WEST
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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