[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN SECTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA IN THE
AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A CLUSTER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 15N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 90W AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N14W 6N23W 8N33W 8N36W 8N47W 11N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING
TOWARD AND OFF THE CORNER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 29N. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERIOR MEXICO-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA-
TO EASTERN CUBA RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE EASTERN END OF CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ONLY THE NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOES FROM PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE INTERIOR
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...ACROSS GEORGIA...AND INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT LEADS TO THE NEXT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 29N67W 24N69W TO 17N70W IN
THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH
FROM 22N63W TO 26N60W BEYOND 33N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N43W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ON TOP OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH TO 33N24W TO 30N35W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 29N45W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE
ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
MT

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