[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW/MID
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 14N.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE...HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
STILL OCCUR OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
57W-61W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 65W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT.  BROAD
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 71W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1ON14W 6N20W 9N34W 9N50W 13N60W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 8W-14W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS.  A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N89W 28N91W
25N97W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 24N80W 23N90W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
24N-25N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF.  A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER TEXAS AND THE N
GULF STATES ALONG 31N BETWEEN 106W-85W.  EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING
WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE
ABOVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 77W-87W MOSTLY DUE TO
THE ITCZ.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-87W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N AND W OF 80W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA N OF 10N AND E OF 80W DUE TO THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE
MOVING W AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 29N70W 24N80W...THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N46W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 65W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N55W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO BEYOND
32N55W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 45W-65W.  A BROAD TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA









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