[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW/MID
INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER. THE WAVE
CONTINUES UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLY SHEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 31W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 24N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72 S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 66W-72W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N26W 9N48W 12N59W BECOMING
ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO REDEFINE OVER COLOMBIA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 8N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 57W-59W.
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-14N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 41W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS PUSHING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE SE US SKIRTING THE N GULF COAST.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND WITH A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 84W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG THE W COAST OF
MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A
REMNANT FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W W TO 23N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
11N80W S OF 16N W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
ACROSS CUBA/HAITI TO 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W. BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDES THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N70W S ACROSS CUBA/HAITI NEAR
20N75W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N69W TO 29N72W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N E OF THE FRONT TO 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
64W-71W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS NEAR 12N46W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 46W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 30W-65W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
23N50W TO 30N53W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 44W-63W.
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N16W SW TO NEAR 15N31W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE
REGION. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W AND DUE TO THE DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE IS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A
1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N41W.

$$
WALLACE





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