[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
54W AND 55W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 14N70W
8N70W MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS
HEADING TOWARD AN AREA NOW COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WHICH IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N72W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 27N74W
23N76W TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LAST
MAP ANALYSIS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
EXACTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON
TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 14N83W 12N77W. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THIS AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG THE LINE FROM COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE BELIZE COAST FROM 16N TO 18N.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 9N30W 8N38W 12N55W 12N60W 11N66W. 22W 9N37W 11N49W
11N53W 10N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 22N...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS COLD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...BECOMING WARM INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY EVERYWHERE ELSE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...COVERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...
AND GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS
INTO THE AREA OVER CUBA TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ADVANCING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA-TO JUST WEST OF
JAMAICA TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N56W TO 17N58W TO 14N61W TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW IS NEAR
32N72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N72W TO
27N74W 23N76W TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH ARE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 32N707W TO 27N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N WEST OF 60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE TROUGH...ALONG 20N70W 26N66W BEYOND 32N62W. THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH STARTS OUT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N56W TO 17N58W TO 14N61W TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THIS TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N28W TO 11N36W. A DISSIPATING
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N30W TO 25N37W...
CURVING NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N39W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT.

$$
MT




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