[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT APPEARS THE WAY IS BEGINNING TO SLOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 66W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW/MID
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF
15N. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND MOST OF THE
WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-80W.


...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N20W 10N27W 7N39W 12N54W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N62W ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA
NEAR 9N82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 34W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERING THE W
GULF AND EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE NW ATLC IS GIVING THE
NE GULF NW FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING
THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N88W
BECOMING DIFFUSED TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF
25N E OF 85W WHILE THE REMAINING GULF HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED NEAR 14N77W WITH A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N86W. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA W OF 80W AN
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-20N W OF 81W. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR
EXCEPT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 80W
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 33N74W WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 32N75W TO A
TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N72W AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUES NE TO 29N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN
61W-68W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 27N69W. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 23N57W S TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N27N
BETWEEN 49W-55W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 13N45W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 45W
COVERING THE AREA FROM 35W-55W AND OVER CUTTING THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W S TO NEAR 17N31W THUS COVERING THE E
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH
32N23W SW TO 26N32W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION AS A STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR 32N40W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N45W AND A WEAKER 1019 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
31N15W.

$$
WALLACE





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